* Two ongoing trends are both striking and critical: “population decline” and “population aging”.
* 86 countries are experiencing the new phenomenon called “below replacement fertility” whereby populations are no longer having enough children to replace them.
* The problem is not the number of people. In fact, the boons in science and technology have been made possible precisely because of the greater number of people.
* The most important basic resource is human resource.
* “There is no evidence whatsoever that slower rates of population growth encourage economic growth of economic welfare; on the contrary, the developing countries with higher rates of population growth have had higher average rates of per-capita-output growth in the period since 1950. “ (Jacqueline Kasun)
* “The most important benefit of population size and growth is the increase it brings to the stock of useful knowledge. Minds matter economically as much as, or more than, hands or mouths. Progress is limited largely by the availability of trained workers. The main fuel to speed the world’s progress is the stock of human knowledge. And the ultimate resource is skilled, spirited, hopeful people, exerting their wills and imaginations to provide for themselves and their families.” (Julian Simon)
* In place of the population explosion, a new set of demographic trends – each historically unprecedented in its own right – is poised to reshape, and recast, the worlds population profile over the coming quarter century. Three of these emerging tendencies deserve special mention. The first is the spread of “subreplacement” fertility regimens, that is, patterns of childbearing that would eventually result, all else being equal, in indefinite population decline. The second is the aging of the worlds population, a process that will be both rapid and extreme for many societies over the coming quarter century. The final tendency, perhaps the least appreciated of the three, is the eruption of intense and prolonged mortality crises, including brutal peacetime reversals in health conditions for countries that have already achieved relatively high levels of life expectancy.
* For all the anxiety that the population explosion has engendered, it is hardly clear that humanity will be better served by the dominant demographic forces of the post-population-explosion era. Nobody in the world will be untouched by these trends, which will have profound impact on employment rates, social safety nets, migration patterns, language, and education policies. In particular, the impact of acute and extended morality setbacks is ominous. Universal and progressive peacetime improvements in health conditions were all but taken for granted in the demographic era that is now concluding; they no longer can be today, or in the era that lies ahead.
(Nicholas Eberstadt “The Population Implosion. “Foreign Policy vol. 123 (March/April 2001).
THE PHILIPPINES: FALLING TOTAL FERTILITY RATE


