Well-researched report on population(1)
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I've read, with much delight, your banner story "Population policy hit" by Mr. Rommer M. Balaba and Hannah Ira V. Alcoseba. It is a treat to have news that is researched well. Your reporters upheld the value of a person. Filipinos are the country's most important resource. We, like all people, have the capacity to have a well-formed intellect and a strong will to freely control our passions. I agree with your paper that poverty is caused, among other things, by poor governance. Here are four facts that show why population growth is not the problem.
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Fact 1: Mr. Manny Arejola, a former regional director of the Commission on Population, swore that local government executives would normally negotiate an increase in population count to be reported “officially” after each Census because each one was trying to elevate the city’s classification. This is done because the higher the classification, the higher the percentage rate of computation for one’s share in the Internal Revenue Allotment (IRA). In Mr. Arejola’s 13 years in Western Mindanao, he estimates the population count to be bloated by at least one million people.(2)
Fact 2: Dr. Eliseo de Guzman of the U.P. Population Institute Demographic Research and Development Foundation claims that the country’s Total Fertility Rate is targeted to drop below the replacement fertility rate by the year 2020.(3) By coincidence, Dr. de Guzman claim is bolstered by the US News & World Report. The report showed that by the year 2020, developing countries would have people over 60 years old to outnumber kids 14 years old and younger by 20.6%.(4) In truth, the problem starts when the number of productive workers is not enough to support the growing number of the aged.
Fact 3: It is true that population growth puts pressure on resources. But what has been the score on the world’s resources? Any first year economics student can say that, assuming all things constant, prices go down because supply exceeds demand. But has demand for natural resources exceeded supply? Look at prices. In 1990, an environmentalist Dr. Paul Ehrlich sent an economist Dr. Julian Simon a check for $570 in settlement of a bet. Dr. Ehrlich chose five minerals. They agreed how much of these metals $1,000 would buy in 1980, then ten years later recalculated how much that amount of metal will cost (still in 1980 dollars) and Dr. Ehrlich agreed to pay the difference if the price fell; Dr. Simon would pay if the price rose. Dr. Simon won easily. He would have won even if they had not adjusted the prices for inflation, and no matter what mineral was chosen. Dr. Simon frequently offers to repeat the bet with any prominent doomsayer, but has not yet found a taker. Forecasters of scarcity and doom have a track record of being wrong.
Fact 4: Mang Enteng Caya, arguably the best barber in Kamuning, Quezon City, has 13 children. He claims that his children are the greatest source of his happiness. They inspire him to work hard and work well. So many people line up for his service. Recently, he saved enough to set up his own barbershop with his wife as manicurist and children as fellow barbers. Had population control taken effect a generation ago, Mang Enteng would have less hair to cut. Businessmen could learn from this. High population would mean high domestic demand. This must be why during times of external crises, the economies with high population, such as China and India, keep growing. And why those countries with relatively small population such as Singapore and Malaysia, take a beating. And, yes, why the food, consumer, and education businesses pull through. Ask Mr. Arejola, Dr. de Guzman, Dr. Simon, and Mang Enteng. I’m sure they would agree that it would be better for the business sector to focus on doing their business well than be distracted with problems that do not exist.
Source:
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(1) Business World, Jose Leo Lemuel G. Caparas, Jr., Letters to the Editor, 17 November 2003
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(2) Arejola, Manny. Shrinking Markets in Graying Societies with Disappearing babies, published on World Population Day 2000, Copyright 2000 by San Lorenzo Institute for Family Empowerment, Inc. (SanLIFE). p.3
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(3) Ibid p.4
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(4) US News & World Report “How Global Aging Will Challenge the World’s Economic Well Being” as reported in March 1, 1999
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(5) The Economist, Plenty of Gloom, 20 December 1997. Also mentioned by William McGurn, First Things, Population and wealth of nations, December 1996; Michael Fumento, Crisis, Profits of Doom: How to achieve fame and fortune by being spectacularly wrong, February 1991; John Tierny, The New York Times Magazine, A wager on the world’s resources, 1990; Joseph M. de Torre (ed.) Population Matters: A symposium, 2002.
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